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Archived Validation Receipt

Veritas — 07 May 2026 (Thursday)

Archived record. Republished from permanent ClickHouse storage. Prediction generated 2026-05-07 08:46 IST (pre-open, before 09:15 IST market open). Not a live run — this is a historical record from the validation archive. Band and actual price shown below are as stored; range_hit is independently verifiable.
Bands held
3/3
Direction correct
2/3
Index scope
NIFTY 50 + NIFTY BANK + SENSEX
NIFTY 50
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)24,204.29
Predicted band (high)24,447.09
Predicted midpoint24,325.69
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)24,334.90
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: NEUTRAL)Correct ✓
Confidence48.4%
Failure modeINPUT_DEGRADED

The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,334.90) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (24,204.29 – 24,447.09). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Model confidence was 48% (weak directional reliability). Below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface.

NIFTY BANK
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)55,688.86
Predicted band (high)56,222.65
Predicted midpoint55,955.76
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)55,920.20
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: NEUTRAL)Not asserted
Confidence39.4%
Failure modeNeutral call — direction not asserted

The NIFTY BANK first-15-minute price (55,920.20) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (55,688.86 – 56,222.65). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Directional bias was NEUTRAL — the model did not assert a direction for this session. The band alone is the accountability measure on neutral calls. Model confidence was very low at 39% — the model signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band tends to be wider.

SENSEX
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)77,558.57
Predicted band (high)78,378.59
Predicted midpoint77,968.58
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)77,900.52
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: BEARISH)Correct ✓
Confidence43.1%
Failure modeINPUT_DEGRADED

The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,900.52) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (77,558.57 – 78,378.59). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Model confidence was very low at 43% — the model signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band tends to be wider.

About this archived receipt

This receipt is republished from permanent ClickHouse storage — the same data store Veritas has used since 07 May 202. The prediction was generated at 2026-05-07 08:46 IST, before the market opened at 09:15 IST. The actual open is the 09:15–09:25 IST median window price as stored at validation time. Neither the prediction nor the actual has been modified.

Band (low/high) and actual price are shown on every receipt so you can verify range_hit independently: if the actual falls between the band low and high, the band held.

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