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Archived Validation Receipt

Veritas — 04 May 2026 (Monday)

Archived record. Republished from permanent ClickHouse storage. Prediction generated 2026-05-04 08:46 IST (pre-open, before 09:15 IST market open). Not a live run — this is a historical record from the validation archive. Band and actual price shown below are as stored; range_hit is independently verifiable.
Bands held
2/3
Direction correct
1/3
Index scope
NIFTY 50 + NIFTY BANK + SENSEX
NIFTY 50
BAND MISS
Predicted band (low)24,026.07
Predicted band (high)24,162.90
Predicted midpoint24,094.49
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)24,180.38
Band resultMISS ✗
Direction (bias: BULLISH)Correct ✓
Confidence98.5%
Failure modeBand miss — actual open outside predicted range

The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,180.38) traded outside the predicted band (24,026.07 – 24,162.90) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 17.48 above the upper bound. The first-15-minute price landed outside the predicted band. Recorded without editing. Model confidence was 98% with weak directional reliability.

NIFTY BANK
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)54,520.50
Predicted band (high)55,500.98
Predicted midpoint55,010.74
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)55,164.18
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: NEUTRAL)Not asserted
Confidence98.5%

The NIFTY BANK first-15-minute price (55,164.18) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (54,520.50 – 55,500.98). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Model confidence was 98% with weak directional reliability.

SENSEX
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)76,700.18
Predicted band (high)77,589.23
Predicted midpoint77,144.70
Actual open (09:15-09:30 Median)77,518.96
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: NEUTRAL)Not asserted
Confidence98.5%

The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,518.96) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (76,700.18 – 77,589.23). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Model confidence was 98% with weak directional reliability.

About this archived receipt

This receipt is republished from permanent ClickHouse storage — the same data store Veritas has used since 04 May 202. The prediction was generated at 2026-05-04 08:46 IST, before the market opened at 09:15 IST. The actual open is the 09:15–09:25 IST median window price as stored at validation time. Neither the prediction nor the actual has been modified.

Band (low/high) and actual price are shown on every receipt so you can verify range_hit independently: if the actual falls between the band low and high, the band held.

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