Veritas — 2026-07-23 — Day 33 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-07-23T08:46:18.210939+05:30
3/3
3/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,913.60) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (23,860.90 – 24,092.89). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was low at 50% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (56,796.95) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (56,555.45 – 57,581.98). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 36% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (76,515.10) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (76,226.26 – 77,104.58). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-23 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.