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Public Validation Receipt

Veritas — 2026-07-20 — Day 30 of public tracking

Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.

Observed: 2026-07-20T08:46:14.066692+05:30

Bands held
2/3
Direction correct
2/3
NIFTY 50
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)24,187.77
Predicted band (high)24,424.69
Predicted midpoint24,306.23
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)24,205.85
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: NEUTRAL)Not asserted
Confidence44.7%
Failure modeNeutral call — direction not asserted, band used as range only

The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,205.85) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (24,187.77 – 24,424.69). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Directional bias was NEUTRAL — the model did not assert a direction for this session. On neutral calls the band alone is the accountability measure, and direction is explicitly not part of the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.

BANK NIFTY
BAND MISS
Predicted band (low)57,939.58
Predicted band (high)58,939.10
Predicted midpoint58,439.34
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)57,793.75
Band resultMISS ✗
Direction (bias: BEARISH)Correct ✓
Confidence26.2%
Failure modeRANGE_MISS

The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,793.75) traded outside the predicted band (57,939.58 – 58,939.10) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 145.83 below the lower bound. Model confidence was very low at 26% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.

SENSEX
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)77,577.07
Predicted band (high)78,502.03
Predicted midpoint78,039.55
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)77,665.62
Band resultHIT ✓
Direction (bias: BEARISH)Correct ✓
Confidence46.4%

The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,665.62) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (77,577.07 – 78,502.03). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.

About This Receipt

This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-20 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.

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