Veritas — 2026-07-17 — Day 29 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-07-17T08:46:16.138489+05:30
1/3
0/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,188.90) traded outside the predicted band (23,923.64 – 24,177.00) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 11.90 above the upper bound. Directional bias (BEARISH) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,788.90) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (56,994.96 – 58,021.80). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 38% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,617.80) traded outside the predicted band (76,646.56 – 77,577.96) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 39.84 above the upper bound. Directional bias (BEARISH) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-17 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.