Veritas — 2026-07-14 — Day 26 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-07-14T08:46:14.147787+05:30
3/3
3/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,109.55) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (24,066.81 – 24,276.24). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was 56% with strong directional reliability.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,787.35) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (57,723.31 – 58,550.08). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 36% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,272.34) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (77,060.91 – 77,926.74). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was low at 53% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-14 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.