Veritas — 2026-07-09 — Day 23 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-07-09T08:46:12.408137+05:30
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The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,992.80) traded outside the predicted band (23,736.17 – 23,965.63) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 27.17 above the upper bound. Directional bias (NEUTRAL) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,215.75) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (56,211.75 – 57,216.46). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BULLISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 27% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (76,870.56) traded outside the predicted band (75,952.96 – 76,848.70) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 21.86 above the upper bound. Directional bias (NEUTRAL) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 41% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-09 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.