Veritas — 2026-07-01 — Day 17 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-07-01T08:53:17.258406+05:30
3/3
1/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,912.40) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (23,707.99 – 24,002.05). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BULLISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bearish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was low at 50% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,573.35) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (57,167.68 – 58,049.24). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Directional bias was NEUTRAL — the model did not assert a direction for this session. On neutral calls the band alone is the accountability measure, and direction is explicitly not part of the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 36% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (76,640.62) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (76,004.68 – 76,926.43). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was NEUTRAL, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 41% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-07-01 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.