Veritas — 2026-06-29 — Day 15 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-06-29T08:48:16.704193+05:30
3/3
1/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (24,081.40) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (23,884.51 – 24,178.38). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BULLISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (58,179.20) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (57,470.23 – 58,655.96). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BULLISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bearish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 26% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (77,091.51) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (76,600.55 – 77,552.42). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BULLISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bearish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 41% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-06-29 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.