Veritas — 2026-06-16 — Day 7 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-06-16T08:46:18.992383+05:30
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The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,984.85) traded outside the predicted band (23,756.84 – 23,972.24) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 12.61 above the upper bound. Directional bias (NEUTRAL) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was low at 49% (weak directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (57,679.65) traded outside the predicted band (57,066.27 – 57,484.79) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 194.86 above the upper bound. Directional bias (NEUTRAL) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was 58% with strong directional reliability.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (76,725.27) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (75,578.35 – 77,082.59). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Directional bias was NEUTRAL — the model did not assert a direction for this session. On neutral calls the band alone is the accountability measure, and direction is explicitly not part of the validation score. Model confidence was 60% with strong directional reliability.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-06-16 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.