Veritas — 2026-06-10 — Day 3 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-06-10T08:47:04.419964+05:30
2/3
0/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,326.35) traded outside the predicted band (23,086.88 – 23,302.95) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 23.40 above the upper bound. Directional bias (BEARISH) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was low at 49% (weak directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (55,260.30) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (54,904.90 – 55,432.68). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (74,257.29) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (73,079.88 – 74,550.34). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. Directional bias was NEUTRAL — the model did not assert a direction for this session. On neutral calls the band alone is the accountability measure, and direction is explicitly not part of the validation score. Model confidence was low at 48% (weak directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-06-10 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.